Changing face of Russo-Pakistan ties

By MV Kamath

If Afghanistan will get Russian help, why would it want aid from India which would now have to face a Moscow-Kabul-Islamabad entente? But will a Russian-Pakistan relationship help in resolving Indo-Pakistan conflict? With Russia present once again in Afghanistan in a big way, would Pakistan be able to treat Afghanistan as a place to fall-back in case of a conflict with India?

IS Russia slowly but noticeably turning away from India for a more profitable relationship with Pakistan, unbelievable as it may seem? Is India’s tilt towards the United States slowly pushing Moscow to improve its relations with our immediate and hostile western neighbour, at our cost? For over half a century, during the Cold War and after, the Soviet Union and later Russia has stood by India, but now, it seems, the situation is perceptibly changing. It has now been brought to the notice of Indians by a remarkable expose in The Hindu (September 9) by a Russian correspondent, Vladimir Radyuhin which must wake up India from its political slumber.

The story is that early in August, this year, President Medvedev of Russia hosted a quadripartite summit, by inviting leaders of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan to a Black Sea resort Sochi, for high-level discussions. Pakistan was represented by Asaf Ali Zardari. And what is the significance of this meeting? One, Moscow has decisively moved to de-hyphenate its relations with Delhi and Islamabad. Two, it has shown that Russo-Pak relations have been promoted to the highest-presidential-level. And three, that Moscow has overcome its former reluctance to develop full-fledged relations with Islamabad. These are ominous developments. Delhi remains stunned.

As Radyuhin remarks: "Little wonder then, that even after three weeks after the Summit, there has been no reaction from New Delhi". What has made Moscow do a turn-around in its relations with Pakistan? Radyuhin himself provides the answer. It is, he says, the realisation that seeing Islamabad as part of the region’s problems does not help to advance the Russian goal of playing a bigger role in the region". Moscow’s current belief is that "Pakistan must be part of the solution". Pakistan has so far had two powerful friends: the United States and China.

In order to fight India, from the beginning, Islamabad agreed to be the running dog of American imperialism. That paid Pakistan handsomely, in terms of money and material. It went overboard to obey Washington’s dictat and has now realised that this has only landed it in the soup.

The United States is now the most hated country in Pakistan and Zardari has to find a way out. For a long time, to balance US interests, Islamabad courted China, which willingly gave its support because it had its own ulterior motives. In the first place, it wanted to encircle India and cultivating Pakistan was a sound decision from Beijing’s point of view. Secondly, it wanted direct access to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf and a friendly and purchaseable government in Islamabad was to China’s advantage. China has helped build Gwadar port in Baluchistan and can, in no time, send its forces from Zinjiang in Central Asia to Gwadar in 48 hours.

Now Moscow has woken up. In olden times Britain had tried to keep Russia away from the Indian Ocean-and succeeded. Now Britain is no longer in the picture. The United States by its unscrupulous high-handedness has not only humiliated Pakistan but has made it a victim of the very forces US helped raise for throwing Soviet forces out of Afghanistan -the jihadis. For Pakistan, closer cooperation with Russia would be more paying then continued subservience to Washington-and forget the painful past.

To gain Pakistan’s goodwill Russia has promised to aid in two major projects: One project-CASA (Central Asia South Asia) 1000, involves the export of electricity from power-rich Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The other is a motorable road and a railway from Tajikistan to Pakistani across the Wakhan border in extreme northeast Afghanistan, thereby giving Pakistan direct access to the markets of Central Asia and Russia, while Tajikistan-and Russia-will get access to Pakistani ports, a dream long entertained by Russia.

It is suggested that China, too, will stand to gain, as the road is likely to be linked with the Karakorum Highway, connecting Pakistan with China’s Xinjinag region. That should slowly make US help irrelevant to Pakistan. What is significant is that Russia may go still further and become a donor of economic, social and military-political security for Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan-the ultimate irony! Understandably, Russia has a good reason to help the Islamic trio: it will clear the region of US and NATO forces. Already, it would appear that Dimitry Medvedev has renewed his country’s offer to re-build about 140 industrial and infra-structure projects in Afghanistan which the Soviet Union had originally set up during its decade-old military interception.

The deal may be worth one billion dollars, but it may help Moscow to get access to Afghanistan’s oil, gas and minerals. The investment would be eminently worthwhile. Russia’s come-back, in the circumstances, may also help persuade some two lakh Soviet-educated Afghans who had fled the Taliban to Russia, to return to their motherland.

What would this mean to India? It is too early to come to any conclusions. If Afghanistan will get Russian help, why would it want aid from India which would now have to face a Moscow-Kabul-Islamabad entente? But will a Russian -Pakistan relationship help in resolving Indo-Pakistan conflict? With Russia present once again in Afghanistan in a big way, would Pakistan be able to treat Afghanistan as a place to fall-back in case of a conflict with India? Alternately, will Russia be able to get Pakistan out of its anti-India mind-set and help set up peace at last in the Indian sub-continent? That is anybody’s guess.

Writes Radyuhin: "The Sochi Summit has dimmed India’s hope of gaining a strategic foothold in Tajikistan. India and Russia had planned to jointly use the Ayni airfield which India helped to renovate, but Indian presence there looks doubtful now, in the context of the emerging Russia-Afghanistan-Tajikistan axis. India will of course, remain Russia’s close friend and strategic partner but it will have to learn to live with the new Russian- Pakistani bonhomie, just as Russia has taken in its stride India’s entitlement with the US".

What seems obvious is that a whole new political equation is emerging in Central Asian sub-continental politics with consequences yet to be clear. With Pakistan likely to slip out of US control, Washington may wish to be courting India. Delhi would be wise to keep its distance from the US. Russia would still be its best bet, as it has been all these years. We don’t need to be America’s cat’s paw in South Asia.